US: Q3 growth likely to slow to 1.5% annualised – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that the FOMC will get one final important data release prior to the meeting with a first look at US Q3 GDP at 12.30pm GMT.

Key Quotes

“The consensus is for growth to slow to 1.6% annualised while our economists forecast 1.5%. Remember that this compares to 2.0% growth in Q2. Our economists make the point that the Fed’s median 2019 growth estimate in the September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) increased a tenth to 2.2%, which implied back half growth of roughly 1.9% annualised.”

“The details of the Q3 GDP report may therefore prompt Fed officials to begin marking down their forecasts ahead of the next SEP release at the December meeting. At a minimum, the Q3 output data should serve as a benchmark for gauging the data going into the December meeting.”