UK: Johnson faces an uphill struggle to get a deal – ING

In view of James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, it’s been another remarkable couple of days in Westminster as the Supreme Court ruled that the UK prime minister’s decision to suspend Parliament a couple of weeks ago was unlawful and the House of Commons has now reconvened.

Key Quotes

“Despite the fanfare, the implications for Brexit are less obvious. Remember, the main consequence of the suspension was that it made it harder for MPs to legislate against an October ‘no-deal’ exit. But despite these obstacles, MPs still succeeded in approving a law designed to force the prime minister to ask for a further Article 50 extension, should he fail to get a deal approved by Parliament by 19 October.”

“This deadline leaves the prime minister with just over three weeks to find such a deal, and with an election potentially looming, there are incentives to get one. Securing approval for an agreement would avoid the potential political embarrassment of having to ask for another Brexit delay. It might also help stem the tide of Conservative voters to the Brexit Party at the next election (assuming a deal, that enables the UK to leave the EU before voters go to the polls, is perceived as Brexit being "done").”