EUR/USD: Downside looks compelling on dovish ECB call – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities offer their outlook on the EUR/USD pair, in the face of upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision due later on Thursday at 1145 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“Expect a 20bps rate cut tiering, EUR 40bn per month of QE and no rate hike projection until mid-2021 at the earliest.

We're more comfortable with the rates view than QE, as QE will likely be a contentious decision.

 Our dovish ECB call has us looking for downside risks to EURUSD. We think spot will be more sensitive to a large QE announcement than rate cuts as much of the expected Fed/ECB policy path differential already looks priced.”