Spain: Elections unlikely to clear the air soon – TDS

Jack Kempton, macro intern at TD Securities, points out that in Spain general election will take place on 28 April 2019, with all 350 seats in the Congress up for election.

Key Quotes

“No party is expected to command an overall majority, with a hung parliament almost certain. It seems as though we are heading towards months of deadlock as witnessed in 2015/2016, with heightened risks of further elections later this year.”

“According to opinion polls, incumbent PM Pedro Sánchez's centre-left PSOE will pick up the most seats, with the centre-right Partido Popular (PP) set to come in second.”

“A left-wing coalition consisting of PSOE, Unidas Podemos and a range of smaller left-sided parties is the most likely outcome, similar to the current makeup. Despite recent reports, third-placed Ciudadanos (Cs) are unlikely to support a PSOE-Podemos government.”

“Should PP become the largest party or PSOE fail to form a government, a right-wing coalition led by PP, with the support of Cs and the newly formed right-wing Vox, is possible.”