US: NFP likely to come in at 190k in February – TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, following two consecutive reports with initial 300k+ prints, they are looking for US payrolls to mean-revert to 190k in February.

Key Quotes

“We also expect the phase-out of the impact from the government shutdown to be reflected on a tick down in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. Lastly, we forecast wages to rise by a “soft” 0.3% m/m pace (3.3% y/y) in February aided by a favorable reference week.”

“The publication of housing starts and building permits for January, where the consensus anticipates mixed signals, should give us a first look at Q1 activity for the construction sector.”