USD/TRY: Likely rebound near term - Commerzbank

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the USD/TRY has reached the 2018-19 support line and the 200 day moving average at 5.2880/2551 as expected with further support being seen at the November low at 5.1331.

Key Quotes

“The market has now tested and held the uptrend for the past 3 days and we would allow for a rebound from here near term.”

“Resistance still sits between the mid-October low as well as the November 9 and mid-January highs at 5.5329/5.5454. Further up sits the November peak at 5.6492. Once the 5.1331 low has been slipped through, the May and mid-July highs at 4.9624/4.9233 will be back in the picture.”

“The currency pair may well stabilise there, though. Only if the November high were to unexpectedly be bettered on a daily chart closing basis, would a base formation be made with the late October and the current January highs at 5.8692/6.0760 then being in focus. While the cross remains below this area, overall downside pressure should retain the upper hand, though.”