Australia: Leading Index bounces back - Westpac

Bill Evans, research analyst at Westpac, points out that for the Australian economy, the six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from +0.10% in October to +0.43% in November.

Key Quotes

“This latest lift in the Index growth rate comes as a surprise but does not override the general message from the Index over most of 2018.”

“Over the seven months from October last year to April this year the growth rate averaged 0.89%. In the seven months since April the growth rate has averaged only 0.24% – a clear step down.”

“The growth pace in 2019 is expected to fall from the annual rate in 2018 of 3.0% to 2.6%, both rates well short of the Reserve Bank’s current outlook of 3.5% in 2018 and 3.25% in 2019.”

“We expect the Bank will revise down those forecasts when the February Statement on Monetary Policy is released on February 8.”