US: PCE momentum will continue in Q3, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2 - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura note that the US headline PCE deflator rose 0.1% (0.103%) m-o-m in June, mostly in line with expectations (Nomura: 0.053%, Consensus: 0.1%).

Key Quotes

“Our forecast miss was likely due to revisions to the NIPA accounts which lowered PCE deflators in prior months. On a y-o-y basis, PCE inflation was steady at 2.2% y-o-y, slightly below expectations (Nomura: 2.264%, Consensus: 2.3%).”

“Excluding food and energy, core PCE inflation slowed to 0.1% (0.108%) m-o-m in June, mostly in line with expectations (Nomura: 0.06%, Consensus: 0.1%), from 0.2% (0.195%) m-o-m in May.”

“Overall, the monthly profile of core PCE inflation supports our view that core inflation will likely accelerate only gradually.”