US: Goods trade balance and GDP in focus - Nomura

The first estimate of US Q1 GDP came in at 2.3% q-o-q saar and incoming data since then suggest that the Q2 GDP growth will likely be lowered to 2.1% q-o-q saar in the second release by the BEA, according to analysts at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“Annual revisions to manufacturers’ inventories by the Census Bureau lowered inventory build-up at factories in Q1. In addition, the advance release of the Quarterly Services Survey for Q1 suggests weaker-than-expected consumer spending on services relative to the BEA’s assumptions, while business investment in intellectual properties may have been greater. Taken together, the net effect was likely negative.”

“Advance goods trade balance and inventories: Trade deficit narrowed in March as exports rose sharply and outpaced imports. Imports slowed in March, reverting gains in February. We think that a strong increase in goods exports in March likely reverted in April while goods imports rebounded, and we forecast a modest widening in the goods trade deficit to $69.8bn, from $68.3bn.”