EUR/USD still offered below 1.2317/1.2339 – Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, spot should remain offered in the near term while below the 1.2317/39 band.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD traded through but did not CLOSE below the 1.2257 2017-2018 uptrend, and is trading back in the range. We preferably need a close below the 1.2155 Feb 2018 low to confirm a break down/top formation. Near term the market remains capped by the 20 and 55 day moving averages at 1.2317/1.2339 and stays directly offered below here”.

“Intraday Elliott wave counts are conflicting, above 1.2339/50 would allow for recovery very near term to 1.2476 the end of March high”.

“Above the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2622 lies the 1.3190 50% retracement of the move down from 2008 (not favoured)”.