US: Main focus this week on the labour report - Rabobank

We are braced for more volatile trading days as market participants will have to constantly assess the risk of a full scale trade war based on tweets from President Trump and responses from the US’ trading partners and data wise, the main focus this week will be on the US labour report scheduled on Friday, suggests the research team at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect non-farm payroll growth of 185k in March following the 313k surge in February. The unemployment rate is seen edging lower to 4% after holding at 4.1% for five consecutive months. But, the average hourly earnings (consensus: 2.7% y/y and 0.3% m/m) could prove crucial as the market will be watching closely for any signals that demand-led pressure on inflation could increase.”

“The ISM manufacturing index published on Monday fell modestly from 60.8 in February to 59.3 in March, but the prices paid surged to 78.1 from 74.2 in February – an indication that the underlying inflation is rising in the US economy.”