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13 Mar 2014
AUD/USD: Break above 0.9070/80 targets 0.9130 high
FXStreet (Bali) - An AUD/USD market caught short is backtracking yesterday's bearish moves on China woes after an incredibly strong Australian jobs report, which saw the positive data almost tripling expectations.
Australian jobs eye popping, ABS cautious on big jump
The 47.3k positive employment change in February vs 18k expected, combined with +80.5 full-time jobs added, sent the AUD/USD towards 0.9070 resistance, where offers protecting the topside 0.9080 have now stalled the price before further upside at 0.9130 may be exposed.
One point to add though, is that the Australian Bureau of Statistics has cautioned that new jobs panel contributed to change in February figures of a 37% contribution to lift in employment.
According to the Bureau: “The incoming rotation group for February 2014 had a higher proportion of employed persons and persons in the labour force (i.e. less persons not in the labour force) than the sample it replaced. This incoming rotation group contributed, in original terms, 37% of the increase in total employment and 29% of the decrease in persons not in the labour force in February 2014. The trend estimates provide a better measure of the underlying level and direction of the series especially when there are significant rotation group effects.”
AUD/USD outlook
Despite the above statement by the ABS, the data is still way more positive than consensus, thus AUD should be well bid along Thursday; either leading to further follow through along the Asian session/Europe or worst case pictured, any successful topside protection is thought to cause just limited damage, with shallow pullbacks expected to find plenty of buying interest on dips. Immediate buy area is seen at 0.9045/50, and in case a deeper setback develops, 0.9010 should provide formidable support.
Australian jobs eye popping, ABS cautious on big jump
The 47.3k positive employment change in February vs 18k expected, combined with +80.5 full-time jobs added, sent the AUD/USD towards 0.9070 resistance, where offers protecting the topside 0.9080 have now stalled the price before further upside at 0.9130 may be exposed.
One point to add though, is that the Australian Bureau of Statistics has cautioned that new jobs panel contributed to change in February figures of a 37% contribution to lift in employment.
According to the Bureau: “The incoming rotation group for February 2014 had a higher proportion of employed persons and persons in the labour force (i.e. less persons not in the labour force) than the sample it replaced. This incoming rotation group contributed, in original terms, 37% of the increase in total employment and 29% of the decrease in persons not in the labour force in February 2014. The trend estimates provide a better measure of the underlying level and direction of the series especially when there are significant rotation group effects.”
AUD/USD outlook
Despite the above statement by the ABS, the data is still way more positive than consensus, thus AUD should be well bid along Thursday; either leading to further follow through along the Asian session/Europe or worst case pictured, any successful topside protection is thought to cause just limited damage, with shallow pullbacks expected to find plenty of buying interest on dips. Immediate buy area is seen at 0.9045/50, and in case a deeper setback develops, 0.9010 should provide formidable support.