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12 Mar 2014
GBP/JPY is too weak to stage a meaningful upside correction
FXStreet (Moscow) - GBP/JPY rebounded from the Asian low at 170.73, but upside correction stopped at 171.17.
GBP is a bear case
On the intraday basis GBP/JPY is moving within a clear downside trend. To change the intraday sentiment, the cross needs to break above 1h 50 EMA and an upper limit of the resent downside channel at 171.50/60. On a longer tern scale it seems that the cross has topped out at 173.56 (this is Friday’s maximum). From the fundamental point of view the Brithish currency is a lame duck. Mixed industrial production data didn’t support the GBP, while all sorts of gossips and speculations about BOE officers involved in insideк FX trading, did the GBP bulls ill service. Moreover, Mark Carny, BOE governor did his best to reason the markets out of the belief that the Bank is going to raise rates sooner rather than later. Today we are waiting for UK trade balance in January. It is expected that the deficit widened to stg8700 bn. from stg7717 bn. The above mentioned fundamental factors may cement the bear case and trigger the longer term downside correction. On the intraday basis keep an eye at: 171.50-171.60 (downside trend line on hourly charts and 1h 50 EMA) on the upside, and 1701.00 followed by 170.70 on the downside.
What are today’s key GBP/JPY levels?
Today's central pivot point can be found at 171.43, with support below at 170.71, 170.22, and 169.51, with resistance above at 171.91, 172.63 and 173.11. Hourly Moving Averages are mostly bearish, with the 200SMA at 171.01 and the daily 20EMA at 170.68. Hourly RSI is neutral at 41.
GBP is a bear case
On the intraday basis GBP/JPY is moving within a clear downside trend. To change the intraday sentiment, the cross needs to break above 1h 50 EMA and an upper limit of the resent downside channel at 171.50/60. On a longer tern scale it seems that the cross has topped out at 173.56 (this is Friday’s maximum). From the fundamental point of view the Brithish currency is a lame duck. Mixed industrial production data didn’t support the GBP, while all sorts of gossips and speculations about BOE officers involved in insideк FX trading, did the GBP bulls ill service. Moreover, Mark Carny, BOE governor did his best to reason the markets out of the belief that the Bank is going to raise rates sooner rather than later. Today we are waiting for UK trade balance in January. It is expected that the deficit widened to stg8700 bn. from stg7717 bn. The above mentioned fundamental factors may cement the bear case and trigger the longer term downside correction. On the intraday basis keep an eye at: 171.50-171.60 (downside trend line on hourly charts and 1h 50 EMA) on the upside, and 1701.00 followed by 170.70 on the downside.
What are today’s key GBP/JPY levels?
Today's central pivot point can be found at 171.43, with support below at 170.71, 170.22, and 169.51, with resistance above at 171.91, 172.63 and 173.11. Hourly Moving Averages are mostly bearish, with the 200SMA at 171.01 and the daily 20EMA at 170.68. Hourly RSI is neutral at 41.