UK: All eyes on Q4 GDP – Nomura

In view of analysts at Nomura, there remains a notable divergence between the performance of different sectors in the UK economy.

Key Quotes

“While industrial production looks set to have grown by 1% or more during Q4 (the global economy and sterling have helped), construction output may have fallen to a similar degree. Assuming a 0.5% q-o-q rise in services output during the quarter (implying increases of 0.2% m-o-m in both November and December) then that would mean GDP grew by 0.5% q-o-q last quarter (compared with the MPC’s November Inflation Report forecast of 0.4% q-o-q). Under that forecast the annual rate falls from 1.7% to 1.5% in Q4 for a full-year 2017 average rate of 1.8%.”