USD in good shape - Westpac

USD in good shape here, positioning no barrier to further upside and positive momentum in the data persists, suggests Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“Our US data pulse is at 3 ½ year highs (see chart over) and easy financial conditions signal continuing solid data for some weeks yet.”

“Q1 2018 could see a tax related disappointment trade. $1.5trn over 10yrs in fiscal space has been legislated for but independent analysis costs Trump’s plan at $2.4trn - and that assumes contentious revenue measures (e.g. repeal of state & local tax deduction) survive. Trump’s plan must be scaled back, either by phasing in tax cuts over time (disappointing equities) and/or via unrealistic GDP assumptions, though that won’t be credible with centrist Republican Senators and risks losing critical votes. Final package will be later and smaller than many assume.”