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31 Oct 2013
Flash: EUR/USD in weekly lows. Where to now? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The single currency us now testing 2-week lows in the area of 1.3660/55 on Thursday, dragging the EUR/USD lower after lower-than-expected inflation figures from the euro area during September and jobless rate result above forecasts at 12.2% in the same period.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “remains under pressure near term to leave our outlook unchanged. The market is easing back from the 61.8% retracement of the move down from 2011 (at 1.3833)… Support is found at 1.3646, the 3rd October high. This guards the more important 1.3472 16th October low and the 1.3421 base of the 3 month up channel”.
“The key market drivers remain dollar negative but positioning remains the big risk factor and question mark for the currency market… Stretched positioning is likely to explain the fairly big market reaction to the FOMC statement and positioning is likely to remain a downside risk factor to the EUR/USD”, observed Senior Analyst Kasper Kirkegaard at Danske Bank.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “remains under pressure near term to leave our outlook unchanged. The market is easing back from the 61.8% retracement of the move down from 2011 (at 1.3833)… Support is found at 1.3646, the 3rd October high. This guards the more important 1.3472 16th October low and the 1.3421 base of the 3 month up channel”.
“The key market drivers remain dollar negative but positioning remains the big risk factor and question mark for the currency market… Stretched positioning is likely to explain the fairly big market reaction to the FOMC statement and positioning is likely to remain a downside risk factor to the EUR/USD”, observed Senior Analyst Kasper Kirkegaard at Danske Bank.