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17 Oct 2013
Flash: Political uncertainty to delay QE tapering
FXstreet.com (London) - The Global Markets Research team at BTMU noted points with regards to the aftermath of this initial phase in the Debt Ceiling debate, suggesting “The deteriorating US economic growth outlook is likely to result in the Fed further delaying QE tapering”.
Key Quotes:
“The protracted nature of the debt ceiling negotiations and resulting policy uncertainty combined with the partial federal government shutdown for the last sixteen days likely dampened US economic growth momentum in the near-term”.
“We are currently assuming that the negative impact will lower the annualized rate of real GDP growth in Q4 by between 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points. As a result annualized real GDP growth is likely to remain subdued in the second half of this year at below 2.0% after recording average growth of around 1.8% in the first half of 2013”
“The deteriorating US economic growth outlook is likely to result in the Fed further delaying QE tapering”.
The latest weekly initial claims reports have signaled that employment growth is likely already slowing. Even assuming that the debt ceiling is raised, it is unlikely now that the Fed will decide to begin to taper QE in 2013. The first FOMC meeting in 2014 is on the 28th-29th January and will be Ben Bernanke’s last as Fed Chairman:.
“Political uncertainty signals a higher likelihood that the Fed may not begin to taper QE until well into 2014. However one would hope that a timelier budget deal can be agreed by early next year”.
Key Quotes:
“The protracted nature of the debt ceiling negotiations and resulting policy uncertainty combined with the partial federal government shutdown for the last sixteen days likely dampened US economic growth momentum in the near-term”.
“We are currently assuming that the negative impact will lower the annualized rate of real GDP growth in Q4 by between 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points. As a result annualized real GDP growth is likely to remain subdued in the second half of this year at below 2.0% after recording average growth of around 1.8% in the first half of 2013”
“The deteriorating US economic growth outlook is likely to result in the Fed further delaying QE tapering”.
The latest weekly initial claims reports have signaled that employment growth is likely already slowing. Even assuming that the debt ceiling is raised, it is unlikely now that the Fed will decide to begin to taper QE in 2013. The first FOMC meeting in 2014 is on the 28th-29th January and will be Ben Bernanke’s last as Fed Chairman:.
“Political uncertainty signals a higher likelihood that the Fed may not begin to taper QE until well into 2014. However one would hope that a timelier budget deal can be agreed by early next year”.