Back
2 Sep 2015
NZD/USD: 0.6300 handle is a significant support
FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is consolidating sideways along the support of the 0.63 figure in a narrow range between there and the recent highs of 0.6367 and resisted by the hourly 50 SMA.
The fundamentals are bearish while commodities remain under pressure and have been suggested to remain so for the foreseeable future by IMF's Legarde yesterday. Analysts at TD Securities noted that "ANZ's Commodity price index dropped 5.2% in August, the 5th straight monthly decline, to be down 23.5%/yr. The 10.1% fall in dairy prices led the decline in August. In NZD terms, prices fell 3.9%/m and down only 4.6%/yr."
Yesterday, the Global dairy trade index rose +10.9%, up for the 2nd consecutive auction, but the analysts at TD Securities explained that, again, this was due to Fonterra cutting supply.
For the US, there was some surprise in the release of the ADP report. Rob Carnell, analyst at ING explained that with the ADP survey the only remotely accurate US non-farm payrolls directional indicator, the latest release might suggest that there is unlikely to be any significant deviation of Friday's payrolls from the 215K figure printed last month.
"The ADP employment total rose by 190K, up from a downward revised 177K in July (previously 185K). That said, a 13K monthly difference looks insignificant relative to the noise in this series, and a more reasonable description of the figures would be to say that there is no strong directional steer from the ADP this month."
NZD/USD downside remains compelling
NZD/USD is better offered below the 0.6708 downtrend of the 21st August and the 30 minute 200 SMA that capped last week's minor recovery to 0.6505 is moving lower today, at 0.6397. A break of 0.6300 would be significant and opens-up an avenue to 0.6220 and 0.5910.
The fundamentals are bearish while commodities remain under pressure and have been suggested to remain so for the foreseeable future by IMF's Legarde yesterday. Analysts at TD Securities noted that "ANZ's Commodity price index dropped 5.2% in August, the 5th straight monthly decline, to be down 23.5%/yr. The 10.1% fall in dairy prices led the decline in August. In NZD terms, prices fell 3.9%/m and down only 4.6%/yr."
Yesterday, the Global dairy trade index rose +10.9%, up for the 2nd consecutive auction, but the analysts at TD Securities explained that, again, this was due to Fonterra cutting supply.
For the US, there was some surprise in the release of the ADP report. Rob Carnell, analyst at ING explained that with the ADP survey the only remotely accurate US non-farm payrolls directional indicator, the latest release might suggest that there is unlikely to be any significant deviation of Friday's payrolls from the 215K figure printed last month.
"The ADP employment total rose by 190K, up from a downward revised 177K in July (previously 185K). That said, a 13K monthly difference looks insignificant relative to the noise in this series, and a more reasonable description of the figures would be to say that there is no strong directional steer from the ADP this month."
NZD/USD downside remains compelling
NZD/USD is better offered below the 0.6708 downtrend of the 21st August and the 30 minute 200 SMA that capped last week's minor recovery to 0.6505 is moving lower today, at 0.6397. A break of 0.6300 would be significant and opens-up an avenue to 0.6220 and 0.5910.