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19 Aug 2013
EUR/GBP back towards 0.8500
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/GBP reached a high of 0.8541 this morning and now trades back below the pivot of 0.8536 at 0.8529.
Geoffrey Yu and Gareth Berry, strategists at UBS said Asset managers were active in offloading euro positions last week - accounting for the majority of the EURUSD outflow, while splitting EURGBP selling with hedge funds. “The EUR underperformed largely due to relatively strong EURUSD outflows. GBP net buying is continuing, mostly due to ongoing EURGBP selling”. Research teams at Investec bank said “The major theme in London last week was Sterling’s appreciation against the backdrop of a commitment from Mark Carney to an extended period of low rates in the UK”. They continued to say “the Bank of England’s Inflation Report and the introduction of forward guidance has so far satisfied markets that the Bank of England have their house in order, which has allowed investors to pay closer attention to the wave of better than expected economic data. It’s bit of a quieter week for UK data this week but the undoubted highlight will be the second revision of Q2 GDP, although the general consensus is for it to be unrevised at +0.6% quarter on quarter, many believe it could surprise to the upside. Remaining on the economic outlook for now, it was reported in the weekend press that a retail revival across Britain during the sun swept July has given the wider economy a significant boost. We’ve already witnessed the positive effect this had on retail sales last week and it will undoubtedly help Q3 GDP when the first estimate is reported in October. The pound finished the week in fine health”.
EUR/GBP eyes 0.8500
Axel Rudolph,Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank said EUR/GBP has slipped through the four month support line at 0.8538 and thus nears the 0.8500 level, the 2012-13 uptrend line at 0.8494 and the June low at .8470. Here it should find interim support.
“Minor resistance still sits at .8580/83 (July 10 low and 55 day moving average) and further resistance at 0.8597, the May peak.
We expect to see a sell-off towards the 200 day moving average at 0.8453 being seen over the coming weeks now that the current August high at 0.8769 has been highlighted as a significant top.”
The 20 dma 0.8625, 50 dma 0.8588 and the 200 dma is 0.8452. RSI (9) reads 29.12. Supports are ascending from 0.8464, 0.8491, 0.8505. spot is currently 0.8520 while resistances are 0.8534, 0.8580, 0.8615, 0.8623 and 0.8679.
Geoffrey Yu and Gareth Berry, strategists at UBS said Asset managers were active in offloading euro positions last week - accounting for the majority of the EURUSD outflow, while splitting EURGBP selling with hedge funds. “The EUR underperformed largely due to relatively strong EURUSD outflows. GBP net buying is continuing, mostly due to ongoing EURGBP selling”. Research teams at Investec bank said “The major theme in London last week was Sterling’s appreciation against the backdrop of a commitment from Mark Carney to an extended period of low rates in the UK”. They continued to say “the Bank of England’s Inflation Report and the introduction of forward guidance has so far satisfied markets that the Bank of England have their house in order, which has allowed investors to pay closer attention to the wave of better than expected economic data. It’s bit of a quieter week for UK data this week but the undoubted highlight will be the second revision of Q2 GDP, although the general consensus is for it to be unrevised at +0.6% quarter on quarter, many believe it could surprise to the upside. Remaining on the economic outlook for now, it was reported in the weekend press that a retail revival across Britain during the sun swept July has given the wider economy a significant boost. We’ve already witnessed the positive effect this had on retail sales last week and it will undoubtedly help Q3 GDP when the first estimate is reported in October. The pound finished the week in fine health”.
EUR/GBP eyes 0.8500
Axel Rudolph,Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank said EUR/GBP has slipped through the four month support line at 0.8538 and thus nears the 0.8500 level, the 2012-13 uptrend line at 0.8494 and the June low at .8470. Here it should find interim support.
“Minor resistance still sits at .8580/83 (July 10 low and 55 day moving average) and further resistance at 0.8597, the May peak.
We expect to see a sell-off towards the 200 day moving average at 0.8453 being seen over the coming weeks now that the current August high at 0.8769 has been highlighted as a significant top.”
The 20 dma 0.8625, 50 dma 0.8588 and the 200 dma is 0.8452. RSI (9) reads 29.12. Supports are ascending from 0.8464, 0.8491, 0.8505. spot is currently 0.8520 while resistances are 0.8534, 0.8580, 0.8615, 0.8623 and 0.8679.