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15 May 2015
Outlook for AUD/USD and crosses – ANZ
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The ANZ Team gives the outlook and expected range for AUD/USD and crosses, preferring to sell the Aussie versus the dollar.
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: The AUD weakened overnight after the previous day’s rally. While the emerging turn lower in iron ore prices may have been a driver, it’s difficult to call it the catalyst when the AUD did not weaken until after the NY open. In any case, we remain sellers.”
“On the US front, jobless claims remain within a whisker of 15 year lows. But weak PPI data showed inflation isn’t a problem for the US, giving USD bulls pause for thought. Tonight the beginning of May US data will be closely watched.”
“Expected range: 0.7980 – 0.816”
“AUD/NZD: Markets spent the night in consolidation mode, which involved reversing some of the recent gains. With the AUD posting one of the largest round trips AUD/NZD as a result moved modestly lower.
Expected range: 1.0710 – 1.0820”
“AUD/EUR: ECB President Draghi confirmed the ECB commitment to seeing QE though, but also the need for fiscal and reform commitment from EU politicians. Draghi, like most central bankers, needs politicians to step up for QE to work.
Expected range: 0.7035 – 0.7130”
“AUD/JPY: Japanese M3 money supply continues to appreciate at a 3% annual pace as the impact of Abenomics ripples through the economy.
Expected range: 95.20 – 96.90”
“AUD/GBP: BoE Governor Carney reiterated the long-held view that the next move for UK rates is up, but also warned that the EU referendum needs to be expedited to remove risks from the economy. But Carney is volatile.
Expected range: 0.5070 – 0.5150”
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: The AUD weakened overnight after the previous day’s rally. While the emerging turn lower in iron ore prices may have been a driver, it’s difficult to call it the catalyst when the AUD did not weaken until after the NY open. In any case, we remain sellers.”
“On the US front, jobless claims remain within a whisker of 15 year lows. But weak PPI data showed inflation isn’t a problem for the US, giving USD bulls pause for thought. Tonight the beginning of May US data will be closely watched.”
“Expected range: 0.7980 – 0.816”
“AUD/NZD: Markets spent the night in consolidation mode, which involved reversing some of the recent gains. With the AUD posting one of the largest round trips AUD/NZD as a result moved modestly lower.
Expected range: 1.0710 – 1.0820”
“AUD/EUR: ECB President Draghi confirmed the ECB commitment to seeing QE though, but also the need for fiscal and reform commitment from EU politicians. Draghi, like most central bankers, needs politicians to step up for QE to work.
Expected range: 0.7035 – 0.7130”
“AUD/JPY: Japanese M3 money supply continues to appreciate at a 3% annual pace as the impact of Abenomics ripples through the economy.
Expected range: 95.20 – 96.90”
“AUD/GBP: BoE Governor Carney reiterated the long-held view that the next move for UK rates is up, but also warned that the EU referendum needs to be expedited to remove risks from the economy. But Carney is volatile.
Expected range: 0.5070 – 0.5150”