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17 Apr 2015
April MPC minutes, to be or not to be an event? - RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at RBS noted the up and coming events for the week ahead and highlighted the MPC Minutes.
Key Quotes:
"The April MPC Minutes may well be something of a non-event: another set of unanimous policy votes and little by way of developments in the monetary policy debate as policymakers avoid any risk of entanglement in election issues."
"Macroeconomic data developments did throw up a few contradictions and surprises ahead of the April meeting: weak output data (industrial, construction and services) but solid retail sales volumes; a larger than expected increase in employment but a surprise fall in wage inflation. But with the next Inflation Report due for publication on 13thMay there is nothing which cannot obviously wait for another month."
"Still, there is some risk that the April Minutes relay a debate on wage inflation and labour mobility (immigration) – the March MPC Minutes concluded that ‘all members agreed that it was more likely than not that Bank Rate would increase over the next three years’ but in a subsequent speech BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane argued that the next move in Bank Rate cut was just as likely to be a cut as a rise."
Key Quotes:
"The April MPC Minutes may well be something of a non-event: another set of unanimous policy votes and little by way of developments in the monetary policy debate as policymakers avoid any risk of entanglement in election issues."
"Macroeconomic data developments did throw up a few contradictions and surprises ahead of the April meeting: weak output data (industrial, construction and services) but solid retail sales volumes; a larger than expected increase in employment but a surprise fall in wage inflation. But with the next Inflation Report due for publication on 13thMay there is nothing which cannot obviously wait for another month."
"Still, there is some risk that the April Minutes relay a debate on wage inflation and labour mobility (immigration) – the March MPC Minutes concluded that ‘all members agreed that it was more likely than not that Bank Rate would increase over the next three years’ but in a subsequent speech BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane argued that the next move in Bank Rate cut was just as likely to be a cut as a rise."