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13 Mar 2015
Preview: UK unemployment rate to drop to 5.6% - RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, previews the UK employment data scheduled to be released in the next week, expecting a strong employment growth, drop in unemployment rate and headline earnings growth to register an uptick.
Key Quotes
“Wage inflation in focus as January 2015 pay settlements filter into the official data: Labour market data will include average earnings figures covering January – a key month of the year for annual pay settlements. Bonus payments will also be of interest given the upward spike in the headline earnings rate in December – whether this was indicative of larger pay-outs or more a reflection of variation in their timing.”
“We lean towards a ‘dovish risks’ view on remuneration, though this does not prevent some rise in headline earnings growth which we forecast to edge up to 2.3% (NB, it will probably not be until we have data covering April that we have a better handle on bonus payments).”
“We expect employment growth to remain solid (+135k, +0.4% q/q) which, alongside a further rise in inactivity, should result in a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.6% in the three months to January.”
Key Quotes
“Wage inflation in focus as January 2015 pay settlements filter into the official data: Labour market data will include average earnings figures covering January – a key month of the year for annual pay settlements. Bonus payments will also be of interest given the upward spike in the headline earnings rate in December – whether this was indicative of larger pay-outs or more a reflection of variation in their timing.”
“We lean towards a ‘dovish risks’ view on remuneration, though this does not prevent some rise in headline earnings growth which we forecast to edge up to 2.3% (NB, it will probably not be until we have data covering April that we have a better handle on bonus payments).”
“We expect employment growth to remain solid (+135k, +0.4% q/q) which, alongside a further rise in inactivity, should result in a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.6% in the three months to January.”