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27 Feb 2015
Upside risks for February Eurozone HICP inflation – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Silvio Peruzzo, Research Analyst at Nomura, forecasts Euroarea HICP inflation to print a -0.37% yoy figure (previous -0.62% yoy) in February, and core inflation to stay unchanged at 0.6%yoy, with risks tilted to the upside.
Key Quotes
“NORI – Nomura’s Real Time Inflation – forecasts the flash estimate of euro HICP inflation increasing to -0.37% y-o-y from -0.62% y-o-y in January (data released Monday 2 March), which would be a third consecutive negative print.”
“For core inflation (Eurostat definition, ex-FDTE) our forecast is 0.6% y-o-y, unchanged from January.”
“We see risks to our February euro area inflation forecast as tilted to the upside.”
“Recent developments in oil prices have pushed NORI’s average euro area HICP forecast for 2015 higher to flat from a low of -0.4% this year, while the average 2016 forecast remains unchanged at 0.6%.”
“Looking beyond the volatility of the short-term inflation data due to energy price developments, the view of medium-term inflationary pressures remains unchanged and our 2016 forecast stays significantly below consensus (Bloomberg panel 2016 median forecast currently 1.2%, twice Nomura’s).”
Key Quotes
“NORI – Nomura’s Real Time Inflation – forecasts the flash estimate of euro HICP inflation increasing to -0.37% y-o-y from -0.62% y-o-y in January (data released Monday 2 March), which would be a third consecutive negative print.”
“For core inflation (Eurostat definition, ex-FDTE) our forecast is 0.6% y-o-y, unchanged from January.”
“We see risks to our February euro area inflation forecast as tilted to the upside.”
“Recent developments in oil prices have pushed NORI’s average euro area HICP forecast for 2015 higher to flat from a low of -0.4% this year, while the average 2016 forecast remains unchanged at 0.6%.”
“Looking beyond the volatility of the short-term inflation data due to energy price developments, the view of medium-term inflationary pressures remains unchanged and our 2016 forecast stays significantly below consensus (Bloomberg panel 2016 median forecast currently 1.2%, twice Nomura’s).”