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28 Jan 2015
Australian CPI in focus, scope for RBA cut - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - Australia's Q4 inflation figures are expected to show a continuation of recent disinflationary trends, notes ANZ.
Key Quotes
"Q4 inflation figures are expected to show a continuation of recent disinflationary trends. ANZ is in line with market and forecasts headline inflation to rise by 0.3% q/q and 1.8% y/y."
"Within this, fuel prices will subtract (-0.3ppt), while the tobacco excise increase will provide some offset (+0.15ppt). Underlying inflation (average of trimmed mean and weighted median) is forecast at 0.5% q/q and 2.2% y/y."
"Low inflation outcomes should allow scope for the RBA to cut the cash rate in coming months to further support domestic economic activity. Wages growth is low and petrol prices will subtract a further 0.6ppt from headline inflation in Q1 2015 if they hold at current levels."
"While the lower currency will continue to push up tradables inflation, recent inflation outcomes do not contradict our assumption that passthrough will be muted and protracted, while low global inflation outcomes will also help contain import prices."
Key Quotes
"Q4 inflation figures are expected to show a continuation of recent disinflationary trends. ANZ is in line with market and forecasts headline inflation to rise by 0.3% q/q and 1.8% y/y."
"Within this, fuel prices will subtract (-0.3ppt), while the tobacco excise increase will provide some offset (+0.15ppt). Underlying inflation (average of trimmed mean and weighted median) is forecast at 0.5% q/q and 2.2% y/y."
"Low inflation outcomes should allow scope for the RBA to cut the cash rate in coming months to further support domestic economic activity. Wages growth is low and petrol prices will subtract a further 0.6ppt from headline inflation in Q1 2015 if they hold at current levels."
"While the lower currency will continue to push up tradables inflation, recent inflation outcomes do not contradict our assumption that passthrough will be muted and protracted, while low global inflation outcomes will also help contain import prices."