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4 Dec 2014
The good news keeps coming for US – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The ING Team notes that business surveys point to robust economic activity in the US and any labour market weakness to be seen will likely be temporary.
Key Quotes
“The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 59.3 in November, up from 57.1 in October and better than the 57.5 consensus forecast. Business activity rose to 64.4 from 60.0, which is exceptionally strong and has only been bettered a handful of times in the life time of the series back to 1997.”
“New orders also pushed higher and now stand at 61.4 versus the 50 break-even level while the backlog of orders is also growing, as are export orders. This is very encouraging and with the manufacturing survey also at lofty levels it suggests that the US economy will really drive the global growth story in 2015.”
“The one disappointment is the employment component, which slipped to 56.7 from 59.6. This follows a slight dip in the ADP employment number from yesterday and a pick-up in jobless claims in recent weeks. All of this all points to the risk of a data disappointment in Friday’s labour report.”
“Currently, the consensus estimate is for a monthly increase of 230,000, but we expect 215,000 with probable downside risk. Nonetheless, we don’t think it is the start of a weaker trend. Weather may be a factor in the short term, but in the longer term the strength of the economy gives us confidence that the labour market will perform robustly through 2015.”
Key Quotes
“The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 59.3 in November, up from 57.1 in October and better than the 57.5 consensus forecast. Business activity rose to 64.4 from 60.0, which is exceptionally strong and has only been bettered a handful of times in the life time of the series back to 1997.”
“New orders also pushed higher and now stand at 61.4 versus the 50 break-even level while the backlog of orders is also growing, as are export orders. This is very encouraging and with the manufacturing survey also at lofty levels it suggests that the US economy will really drive the global growth story in 2015.”
“The one disappointment is the employment component, which slipped to 56.7 from 59.6. This follows a slight dip in the ADP employment number from yesterday and a pick-up in jobless claims in recent weeks. All of this all points to the risk of a data disappointment in Friday’s labour report.”
“Currently, the consensus estimate is for a monthly increase of 230,000, but we expect 215,000 with probable downside risk. Nonetheless, we don’t think it is the start of a weaker trend. Weather may be a factor in the short term, but in the longer term the strength of the economy gives us confidence that the labour market will perform robustly through 2015.”