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10 Nov 2014
NZD/USD: An aggressive bearish view - BNZ
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Raiko Shareef,Currency Strategist at BNZ explained that they hold an aggressively-bearish NZD/USD view.
“While commodity prices (dairy in particular) were sharply in focus over the past six months, we pick monetary policy divergence to be key driver of currencies over the coming year”.
“It is common for NZD/USD to trade over and under our assessment of long-run ‘fair value’, and sometimes quite significantly. We think the coming few years are likely to be one of those times”.
“We would caution against the idea that the envisaged USD upswing over the coming year will be anywhere near as orderly as it was in Q3 2014”.
“Policy and data surprises will likely instigate periods of USD appreciation, but with investor positioning quite stretched, we remain wary of out-of-the-blue position squeezes. These have become a relatively frequent feature even in the usually-subdued Asian session”.
“While commodity prices (dairy in particular) were sharply in focus over the past six months, we pick monetary policy divergence to be key driver of currencies over the coming year”.
“It is common for NZD/USD to trade over and under our assessment of long-run ‘fair value’, and sometimes quite significantly. We think the coming few years are likely to be one of those times”.
“We would caution against the idea that the envisaged USD upswing over the coming year will be anywhere near as orderly as it was in Q3 2014”.
“Policy and data surprises will likely instigate periods of USD appreciation, but with investor positioning quite stretched, we remain wary of out-of-the-blue position squeezes. These have become a relatively frequent feature even in the usually-subdued Asian session”.