EUR/PLN: Room for more of an upward repricing of rates should support Zloty – ING

The Polish Zloty has weakened notably in recent days. Economists at ING analyze PLN outlook ahead of the meeting of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).

NBP likely to cut rate again

The meeting is the first since September's surprise 75 bps cut. At the moment, the market is probably pricing in something between a 25-50 bps rate cut for today. We believe the NBP will choose a more cautious pace of rate cuts this time around, especially in an effort to keep the Zloty in check. 

EUR/PLN has been moving up in a narrow range of 4.60-4.65 since September's jump and given the dovish market expectations, we see room for more of an upward repricing of rates which should support PLN. However, uncertainty for today and tomorrow is high and we see higher volatility beyond the current range.