Downside surprise to US data may see more room for USD to fall – OCBC

US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned lower. The greenback could suffer further losses if US data disappoint, economists at OCBC Bank report.

US data may have an asymmetric effect on USD

“This week, we continue to watch US data – Industrial production on Tue and Beige book on Wed. We reiterate our call that US data may have an asymmetric effect on USD – i.e. strong US data may just keep USD broadly supported while downside surprise to US data may see more room for USD to fall.”

“Daily momentum is showing signs of turning mild bearish while RSI shows tentative signs of falling. Bias to lean against strength.” 

“Support at 111.85 levels (38.2% fibo), 111.20 (23.6% fibo).”

“Resistance at 112.40 (50% fibo retracement of Sep high top Oct low, 21 DMA), 113 and 113.70.”