Análise Fundamental: o que é e como usá-la para operar

A análise fundamental é essencial no trading de Forex, especialmente para traders de longo prazo. Na história, investidores de sucesso como George Soros e Warren Buffett fizeram suas fortunas analisando os aspectos fundamentais do mercado.

A análise fundamental estuda como a economia do país afeta a taxa de câmbio da sua moeda. Envolve a interpretação de relatórios estatísticos e indicadores econômicos. Centenas de notícias financeiras e relatórios divulgados diariamente nos permitem prever se o valor da moeda irá apreciar ou depreciar no futuro e quando uma reversão da tendência atual pode ser esperada.

O Calendário Econômico agenda a data e a hora em que um determinado relatório será divulgado. É a principal ferramenta que analistas usam para determinar o impacto que as notícias podem ter. Também mostra as previsões dos especialistas sobre os dados a serem anunciados.

O que é análise fundamental?

A análise fundamental é definida como um método que utiliza fatores externos que afetam a força de uma moeda. Inclui indicadores econômicos como taxa de juros, inflação, emprego, etc., além de forças sociais e políticas. Na análise fundamental, os traders consideram três elementos-chave dependendo dos ativos que operam:

• Análise econômica
• Análise setorial
• Análise de empresas

Esse tipo de análise pode ser comparado ao trabalho investigativo. Permite que traders determinem o valor real de uma moeda, examinando fatores que possam influenciar seu preço futuro. Através dessa análise, traders podem identificar se uma moeda está com preço muito baixo ou muito alto.

Por que a análise fundamental é importante

Na análise fundamental, traders examinam minuciosamente os dados para determinar o valor justo de uma moeda. Avaliam se está sobrevalorizada ou subvalorizada. Este processo envolve a análise de dados estatísticos e indicadores econômicos e a compreensão de como o desempenho econômico de um país influencia sua taxa de câmbio.

Com relatórios econômicos e notícias divulgados diariamente, traders aproveitam essa informação para antecipar flutuações no valor da moeda e identificar possíveis mudanças de tendência de mercado. Um recurso crucial nesse empreendimento é o Calendário Econômico. Ele destaca datas futuras para relatórios e indicadores significativos. Essa ferramenta ajuda analistas a avaliar o impacto potencial de notícias sobre os valores das moedas e a fazer previsões adicionais.

Components of fundamental analysis

Let's explore the crucial components of fundamental analysis.

Economic analysis

It involves assessing macroeconomic indicators that influence the overall market environment. The crucial factors here are the following:

• GDP growth. It indicates economic health and corporate profit potential.
• Inflation rates. They affect purchasing power and consumer spending.
• Interest rates. They influence borrowing costs and economic activity
• Unemployment rates. This indicator reflects labour market conditions and consumer sentiment.

Industry analysis

Industry analysis focuses on the specific sector in which a company operates. Therefore, this type of analysis is relevant for stock traders. It includes:

• Market trends. It is essential to understand growth patterns and demand within the industry.
• Competition. Analysts should evaluate the competitive landscape and market share dynamics.
• Regulatory environment. It includes considering laws and regulations that may affect industry operations.

By analysing these factors, investors can identify opportunities and risks associated with particular sectors.

Company analysis

This component, also relevant for stock traders and investors, dives into the specifics of the business itself. It examines the following points:

• Financial statements. Crucial documents such as income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements provide insights into financial health.
• Financial ratios. Metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, return on equity (ROE), and debt-to-equity ratio help assess profitability, efficiency, and risk.
• Management quality. Leadership effectiveness is crucial for long-term success; analysts evaluate the track record of management teams.
• Competitive positioning. Understanding how a company stands against its competitors helps gauge its growth potential.

How to trade using fundamental analysis

By following these steps in the correct sequence, you can witness the effectiveness of fundamental analysis in practice. The steps are outlined below.

1. Choose which currency you want to trade. Pick the one you know well or the one you have enough information about and feel ready to study.
2. Look at crucial economic information about the country that issues your chosen currency, such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), employment rates, and inflation. If the financial data is positive, the currency might increase in strength. If it's negative, it might lose value.
3. Follow the country's central bank policy. Central banks are like the referees of the currency game. They make important decisions and take critical financial steps, such as setting interest rates. When the central bank raises interest rates, it can strengthen the currency because it attracts investors looking for better returns.
4. Stay informed about current events that could impact the currency. Imagine a country is facing a war or political turmoil—this can make traders nervous and cause the currency to drop in value. So, keeping an eye on news stories is mandatory.

The next step is to use technical analysis. Look at charts and graphs that show how the currency has been performing over time. Price movements and trends can determine the best time to buy or sell the currency.

In the article Technical analysis, you can learn more about how to apply it.

Factors to consider

The Central Bank and interest rates

Since a central bank is often responsible for handling a country's financial matters, its policy decisions profoundly impact currency rates. For instance, to increase the currency's value, it can buy it and hold it in its reserves. To decrease the rate, the reserves are sold back to the market.

When an increase in consumer spending is required, the central bank may lower the interest rate on the loans it provides to commercial banks. If it aims to slow inflation, the interest rates are increased to reduce spending.

Depending on whether it is more concerned with inflation or growth, the Central Bank's policy can be referred to as 'hawkish' or 'dovish'. The former usually leads to higher interest rates, while the latter commonly signifies that the interest rates are about to be decreased.

Inflation

Inflation evaluates how fast the price of goods and services is rising, directly impacting the supply and demand for currency and thus affecting its value. The primary inflation indicators are:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• GDP evaluates all goods and services produced during the reporting period. An increase in GDP signifies economic growth, which is used to measure inflation.
• Released: advance—four weeks after quarter ends; final—three months after quarter ends; time: 15.30 EET (14.30 EEST).
• Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• CPI measures the value of a defined basket of goods and services expressed as an index. Compared to the previous results, CPI shows how consumer buying power has changed and how it was affected by inflation.
• Released: Monthly, approximately mid-month; time: 15.30 EET (14.30 EEST).
• Producers Price Index (PPI)
• This indicator shows the changes in the prices that producers receive and allows them to evaluate how the consumer-level price could be affected.
• Released: second or third week of the month; time: 15.30 EET (14.30 EEST).

Employment

Employment directly affects currency rates, as it impacts future and current spending. An increase in unemployment is believed to signify that the economy is growing weaker; thus, the demand for its currency is falling. On the contrary, substantial employment numbers are a sign of a growing economy, which usually means that the demand for currency will continue to increase.

Below, you will find the most critical employment reports from different countries:

• U.S. non-farm payrolls—an assessment of employment trends except for those of government, non-profit organisations, and farm workers.
• U.S. Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims—the number of new unemployment benefits claims that measure the number of newly unemployed.
• The Labour Force Survey measures the changes in current employment rates in Canada.
• The Wage Price Index indicates changes in wages in Australia.
• Claimant Count Change measures the change in unemployment benefit claims from one reporting period to another in the UK.

Retail Sales

This indicator is important since consumer spending accounts for a substantial part of the economy. It measures the total amount spent on various groups of goods and services during a specific period. Retail sales growth shows that consumers have extra income to spend and are confident in the country's economy.

Released: Monthly, approximately mid-month; time: 15.30 EET (14.30 EEST).

Home Sales

A growing housing market is one significant indicator of a strong economy. Home sales reports, mainly based on consumer confidence and mortgage rates, show the aggregate demand among consumers for housing.

Released: Fourth week of the month; time: 15.30 EET (14.30 EEST).

Wholesale Trade Report

The Wholesale Trade Report is based on a monthly survey of 4,500 wholesale merchants that includes statistics on monthly sales, inventories, and inventory-to-sales ratio. It indicates imbalances in supply and demand and may help predict quarterly GDP reports; however, it does not strongly impact the market.

Released: On or around the 9th of the month; time: 17.00 EET (16.00 EEST)

Balance of Payments (BOP)

The balance of payments summarises all transactions between a country's residents and non-residents for a certain period. All transactions are subdivided into a current account that includes goods, services, and income and a capital account comprising transactions in financial instruments. These data are crucial in formulating national and international economic policy.

Released: around the 19th of the month; time: 15.30 EET (14.30 EEST)

Trade Balance

The report shows the difference between a country's imports and exports and is a significant part of the balance of payments. A trade deficit means the country imports more than it exports, while a trade surplus indicates the opposite. A surplus or declining deficit often signifies increased demand for the currency.

Released: around the 19th of the month; time: 15.30 EET (14.30 EEST).

You can learn more about how the Forex market functions in this article.

Advantages and disadvantages of fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis has several advantages.

• Gives traders an in-depth understanding of the various factors that influence the market, such as interest rates. This knowledge enables them to better prepare for potential market movements.
• Identifies long-term investment opportunities. Unlike technical analysis, which focuses on short-term price movements, fundamental analysis helps traders have a long-term perspective. This allows traders to take advantage of sustainable trends and achieve higher returns.
• Equips traders with the tools to assess risks associated with currency trading. Market participants can understand the potential impacts on currency values by evaluating economic indicators, monetary policies, and geopolitical events. This risk assessment aids traders in managing their exposure to volatile markets effectively.
• Helps traders gauge prevailing market sentiment. The overall attitude of investors toward a particular currency plays a critical role in trading. By analysing economic data, news releases, and investor sentiment indicators, traders can gain an understanding that leads to more accurate price forecasts.
• Gives traders the skills to analyse news releases, like economic data announcements. These news events can significantly affect currency values and help traders position themselves strategically to benefit from market movements.
• Helps market participants evaluate central banks' policies and anticipate their effects on the market. Central banks influence currency values through interest rate decisions and monetary stimulus programs. This foresight allows traders to position themselves ahead of the central bank's actions, potentially profiting from the subsequent currency movements.
• Enables traders to comprehend the relationships among economic variables. The Forex market is affected by a complex interaction of factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, inflation, employment data, and trade balances. This insight enables traders to recognise trends and correlations that can guide their trading choices.
• Reveals long-term trends in currency values. Market participants can identify underlying trends that may take time to notice by examining economic data over extended periods. This long-term perspective allows them to capitalise on sustained movements in currency values, potentially leading to substantial profits.

However, fundamental analysis has several significant disadvantages.

• It requires a considerable investment of time and effort. Traders must continuously gather and analyse data, including economic reports, financial statements, and geopolitical developments. This ongoing commitment can be particularly challenging for those who prefer to engage in shorter-term trading strategies.
• Fundamental analysis is primarily designed for long-term investment strategies. While it offers valuable insights into overarching trends, it may need to predict short-term price fluctuations more effectively. Traders focused on short-term gains often turn to technical analysis, which examines price movements and market trends over brief timeframes.
• The interpretation of fundamental data is inherently subjective. Different traders may draw varying conclusions from the same economic indicators, financial reports, or news items. This subjectivity can lead to diverse decisions, and therefore, market participants must implement a rigorous methodology to minimise bias in their analyses.
• Financial markets must continuously operate with perfect efficiency and can sometimes behave irrationally. Fundamental analysis assumes that markets will eventually correct themselves based on fundamental factors. However, in the short term, markets may overreact to news, resulting in exaggerated price movements. Traders must recognise these inefficiencies and adjust their strategies accordingly.
• This analysis relies heavily on the availability of accurate and comprehensive data. Unfortunately, not all pertinent information may be accessible to all traders. Those with privileged insider information access may have an advantage over retail traders. Traders need to acknowledge the limitations of the information at their disposal and adapt their analyses accordingly.
• Foreign exchange markets are influenced by various economic, financial, and geopolitical factors. Conducting fundamental analysis requires traders to consider multiple variables and how they interact with one another. This complexity can make it challenging to evaluate individual factors on currency values accurately. A deep understanding of these interrelationships is crucial for thoughtful decision-making.
• Fundamental analysis emphasises the intrinsic value of currencies based on economic conditions but may overlook short-term price patterns or market trends. Traders who rely exclusively on fundamental analysis might miss potential trading opportunities that could be identified through technical indicators.
• Since fundamental analysis is based on historical and current data, it may not capture immediate market sentiments or rapidly changing economic conditions. Market responses to news or economic events can be delayed or differ from expectations. Traders must remain aware of these potential lags and adapt their strategies as necessary.

Example of fundamental analysis

Let's take a look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures how much prices for goods and services in an economy.

For instance, the previous value of CPI was 2.4%, which indicates moderate inflation. The release of the new CPI data is significant because it can affect the value of the currencies against the dollar index. If the CPI is higher than the previous value (above 2.4%), it indicates a weakening dollar index (DXY), which implies that the currency pairs with USD as the Quote (EURUSD) value ought to gain strength (BUY). Similarly, the currency pairs with USD as the base value ought to weaken (SELL), for example, USDCHF.

Final thoughts

• Fundamental analysis provides insight into the value of a currency and the factors that influence it.
• It looks at factors related to a country's economy, such as its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), job rates, inflation, and others. All of these factors impact a currency's strength.
• By analysing news events and economic reports, traders can make educated forecasts about future market movements.
• This analysis considers multiple factors, such as interest rates and political events, allowing traders to make smarter decisions when buying or selling currencies.
• While fundamental analysis is beneficial, it is crucial for traders to understand its limitations and to consider integrating it with other methods, such as technical analysis, to enhance their trading strategies.